Is the beloved British bakery chain Greggs past its prime? The numbers suggest a troubling trend, as the company faces a significant slump in profits and slowing sales. But here's where it gets controversial: despite these challenges, Greggs insists it’s not hitting a ceiling—it’s just navigating a tough market. Let’s dive into the details.
Greggs, the high street favorite known for its iconic sausage rolls and steak bakes, has reported a 17.9% drop in statutory pre-tax profits to £167.4 million for the year ending December 27th. This decline comes alongside a slowdown in sales growth at the start of the new year. And this is the part most people miss: while the company blames “challenging” market conditions, including rising living costs, higher taxes, and even the growing popularity of weight-loss treatments, it’s also facing questions about whether its rapid expansion has outpaced demand.
Last year, Greggs’ CEO, Roisin Currie, confidently stated, “I absolutely don’t believe we have reached peak Greggs,” pointing to the company’s history of bouncing back from downturns. But with 121 new stores opened in 2025, bringing the total to 2,739, and plans for another 120 this year, some analysts are skeptical. Is Greggs spreading itself too thin?
The company argues that “easing inflationary pressures” should boost consumer spending in 2026. However, this optimism comes amid lingering grocery inflation and global uncertainties like the threat of conflict in the Middle East, which could further strain budgets. Greggs acknowledges that a particularly hot summer also hit footfall, but it remains “resilient” in the face of adversity.
Here’s where it gets interesting: while total sales grew by 6.8% to £2.15 billion last year, supported by new store openings and an expanded delivery service, like-for-like sales growth has been modest. In the first nine weeks of 2026, managed shop sales rose just 1.6%, with total sales up 6.3%. Is this enough to sustain Greggs’ ambitious goal of surpassing 3,000 UK stores?
Analysts are divided. Darren Shirley of Shore Capital warns there’s “little to shout about as trading slows,” while Aarin Chiekrie of Hargreaves Lansdown highlights Greggs’ efforts to adapt, such as menu tweaks and extended opening hours to capture evening customers. Nearly 75% of stores now stay open past 5 PM, catering to the fastest-growing segment of the day.
But here’s the burning question: Can Greggs continue to grow while maintaining its appeal in a crowded market? With cautious consumers and fierce competition, the bakery chain’s future hinges on its ability to innovate and stay relevant. What do you think? Is Greggs still on the rise, or has it bitten off more than it can chew? Let us know in the comments!
